Democratic former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are in a neck-and-neck race for Virginia governor, according to the first Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of the 2025 election. Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by a razor-thin margin, 42% to 41%, with 4% of voters supporting another candidate and 13% undecided, the survey found.
With 10 months to go before the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election, the race “is tight overall, but significant demographic differences are emerging”, said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Kimball noted that Earle-Sears has strong support among male voters, who favor her 52% to 37%, and white voters, who back her 50% to 35%. Spanberger, on the other hand, leads among women, 47% to 31%, as well as older voters over 70 and younger voters under 30, who support her 46% to 43% and 43% to 33%, respectively.
Both women are currently the only declared candidates for their parties in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race. Earle-Sears appears poised to secure the Republican nomination after endorsements from Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Attorney General Jason Miyares.
On the Democratic side, however, the race could expand, as U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott, D-Newport News, has openly mused about running. Meanwhile, former GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman is considering a bid for governor or lieutenant governor as an independent candidate.
Thursday’s survey shows little change in the dynamics of the Virginia gubernatorial race since a September poll by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, which found Spanberger and Earle-Sears tied at 39%, reflecting a consistently tight contest as the 2025 election approaches.
