by Julia Manchester – 08/19/25 9:56 AM ET
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Va.) lead over Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the state’s gubernatorial race is narrowing, according to polling from Roanoke College.
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 46 percent to 39 percent among likely voters in the poll released Tuesday; 14 percent of voters said they were undecided, while 1 percent said they would vote for someone else. The previous Roanoke College poll of the race was released in May and showed Spanberger leading 43 percent to 26 percent, and the latest polling average released earlier this month by The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 45.2 percent to 36 percent.
Seventy-six percent of likely voters said they were “very certain” of their choice for governor, while 21 percent said they were “somewhat certain.”
Virginia Republicans have sounded the alarm about their chances in the gubernatorial race, pointing to Earle-Sears significantly trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polls.
However, the Roanoke College poll showed that the closest races in Virginia’s off-year elections continue to be the lieutenant governor and attorney general contests.
Virginia state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads Republican John Reid in the race to replace Earle-Sears 38 percent to 35 percent, while former Del. Jay Jones (D) leads incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) 41 percent to 38 percent.
The latest Roanoke College poll was conducted Aug. 11-15 among 702 Virginia residents. The margin of error among all poll respondents is 4.3 percent, while the margin of error for likely voters is 4.39 percent.